MONTRÉAL, Sept. 24, 2025 /CNW/ – Air Canada right this moment supplied sure estimated outcomes for the third quarter of 2025 and up to date full 12 months 2025 steering, which was suspended in August 2025. Air Canada additionally supplied an estimate of the monetary affect of the labour disruption in August by the Canadian Union of Public Staff (CUPE), the union representing cabin crew.
Q3 2025 Estimated Outcomes
Air Canada anticipates, for the quarter ending September 30, 2025:
Operated capability to say no by roughly 2% from the identical interval in 2024 because of the cancellation of greater than 3,200 flights;
Working revenue between $250 million and $300 million, which incorporates roughly $175 million from one-time non-cash pension plan amendments and different labour associated fees and adjusted EBITDA* between $950 million and $1 billion. Air Canada’s working revenue totalled $1.040 billion and adjusted EBITDA $1.523 billion for the third quarter of 2024.
*Adjusted EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), adjusted CASM and free money circulate are referred to on this information launch. Such measures are non-GAAP monetary measures, non-GAAP ratios, or supplementary monetary measures, will not be acknowledged measures for monetary assertion presentation beneath GAAP, do not need standardized meanings, will not be corresponding to related measures introduced by different entities and shouldn’t be thought-about an alternative choice to or superior to GAAP outcomes. Discuss with the “Non-GAAP Monetary Measures” part of this information launch for descriptions of those measures, and for a reconciliation of Air Canada non-GAAP measures used on this information launch to probably the most comparable GAAP monetary measure.
Labour Disruption Impacts
Throughout the collective bargaining interval with CUPE, Air Canada developed complete plans to make sure the protected and orderly wind down and restart of its operations within the occasion of a labour disruption. When CUPE gave discover of its intent to strike, Air Canada acted on these contingency plans and in the end cancelled over 3,200 flights in August 2025.
Monetary affect. The monetary affect of the labour disruption, which included an illegal strike, is estimated to be $375 million in working revenue and adjusted EBITDA*. This quantity is derived from the mix of three parts. First, the income affect is estimated to be $430 million, primarily resulting from refunds issued to prospects, buyer compensation and decrease than anticipated journey bookings in August and early September. Second, $145 million in prices are estimated to have been prevented resulting from much less flying exercise, largely attributable to decrease gasoline bills. Third, the associated fee avoidance was partially offset by an estimated $90 million of incremental prices related to reimbursements to prospects for out-of-pocket bills and labour-related working prices.
Affected prospects. Air Canada deeply regrets the affect of the disruption on its prospects and stays dedicated to resolving each declare submitted by affected prospects shortly and precisely, having finished so for greater than 60,000 claims up to now. Air Canada continues to replace its progress and to offer info on its goodwill insurance policies on the dashboard obtainable at www.aircanada.com/motion.
Arbitration with CUPE. Air Canada and CUPE are continuing to arbitration to finalize the wage portion of the four-year tentative settlement. No labour disruption may be initiated by both get together through the arbitration course of or the time period of the brand new settlement.
Up to date Full Yr 2025 Outlook
Air Canada is restoring and updating its full 12 months 2025 monetary and capability steering to replicate the monetary and operational affect of the CUPE labour disruption and its expectations for the rest of 2025, as follows:
*Discuss with the “Non-GAAP Monetary Measures” part of this information launch for descriptions of those measures, and for a reconciliation of Air Canada non-GAAP measures used on this information launch to probably the most comparable GAAP monetary measure.
Main Assumptions
Air Canada made assumptions in offering its steering—together with a marginal Canadian GDP progress for 2025. Air Canada now assumes that the Canadian greenback will commerce, on common, at C$1.39 per U.S. greenback for the total 12 months 2025 and that the worth of jet gasoline will common C$0.92 per litre for the total 12 months 2025.
Air Canada’s estimates for the third quarter of 2025 and the steering for the total 12 months 2025 represent forward-looking info inside the that means of relevant securities legal guidelines and are topic to necessary dangers and uncertainties. Please see the dialogue under beneath Warning Relating to Ahead-looking Data.
All figures and knowledge indicated herein with respect to the third quarter ending September 30, 2025 replicate estimates with respect to such outcomes primarily based on at present obtainable info, and haven’t been reviewed by the auditors. Air Canada’s precise outcomes for the third quarter 2025 could differ from these estimates because the interim interval shouldn’t be but full and stays topic to completion of closing procedures, closing changes, administration’s evaluate of outcomes and completion of the interim unaudited consolidated monetary statements. Different developments could come up between now and the time the monetary outcomes are finalized, and outcomes may very well be materially totally different than the estimates set forth herein. These estimates will probably be supplemented by the third quarter 2025 consolidated monetary info which will probably be launched in accordance with relevant necessities.
Non-GAAP Monetary Measures
Beneath is an outline of sure non-GAAP monetary measures and ratios utilized by Air Canada to offer readers with extra info on its monetary and working efficiency. Such measures will not be acknowledged measures for monetary assertion presentation beneath GAAP, do not need standardized meanings, will not be corresponding to related measures introduced by different entities and shouldn’t be thought-about an alternative choice to or superior to GAAP outcomes. The non-GAAP monetary measures or ratios described on this part usually have exclusions or changes that embody a number of of the next traits, similar to being extremely variable, tough to undertaking, uncommon in nature, vital to the outcomes of a specific interval or not indicative of previous or future working outcomes. This stuff are excluded as a result of the corporate believes these could distort the evaluation of sure enterprise traits and render comparative evaluation throughout intervals much less significant and their exclusion typically permits for a extra significant evaluation of Air Canada’s working expense efficiency and will enable for a extra significant comparability to different airways.
Air Canada excludes the impact of impairment of property, if any, when calculating adjusted CASM and adjusted EBITDA, as it could distort the evaluation of sure enterprise traits and render comparative evaluation throughout intervals or to different airways much less significant.
A cost of $34 million was recorded within the third quarter of 2024 in different working bills associated to estimated prices related to contractual lease obligations. Air Canada excluded this expense in computing adjusted CASM and adjusted EBITDA.
Air Canada recorded a one-time pension previous service price of $490 million within the fourth quarter of 2024 because of sure pension plan amendments made along with the ratified 2024 collective settlement with its pilots. Air Canada excluded this cost in computing adjusted CASM and adjusted EBITDA.
Within the third quarter of 2025 Air Canada expects to document a one-time pension previous service price and different labour associated fees of roughly $175 million, together with from the pension plan amendments made along with the tentative settlement reached with CUPE. Air Canada has excluded this cost in computing its estimated third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA and its steering for the total 12 months 2025 in respect of adjusted CASM and adjusted EBITDA.
Adjusted CASM
Air Canada makes use of adjusted CASM to evaluate the working and value efficiency of its ongoing airline enterprise with out the consequences of plane gasoline expense, the price of floor packages at Air Canada Holidays, freighter prices and different gadgets mentioned above. This stuff could distort the evaluation of sure enterprise traits and render comparative evaluation throughout intervals much less significant and their exclusion typically permits for a extra significant evaluation of Air Canada’s working expense efficiency and will enable for a extra significant comparability to that of different airways.
In calculating adjusted CASM, plane gasoline expense is excluded from working expense outcomes because it fluctuates extensively relying on many components, together with worldwide market circumstances, geopolitical occasions, jet gasoline refining prices and Canada/U.S. forex alternate charges. Air Canada additionally incurs bills associated to floor packages at Air Canada Holidays which some airways, with out comparable tour operator companies, could not incur. As well as, these prices don’t generate ASMs and due to this fact excluding these prices from working expense outcomes gives for a extra significant comparability throughout intervals when such prices could differ.
Air Canada additionally incurs bills associated to the operation of freighter plane which some airways, with out comparable cargo companies, could not incur. Air Canada had six Boeing 767 devoted freighter plane in service as at December 31, 2024, and 7 as at December 31, 2023. These prices don’t generate ASMs and due to this fact excluding these prices from working expense outcomes gives for a extra significant comparability of the passenger airline enterprise throughout intervals.
The next tables present the adjusted CASM reconciliation to GAAP working expense for the intervals indicated.
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, amortization and impairment) is usually used within the airline trade and are utilized by Air Canada as a way to view working outcomes earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, amortization and impairment and different gadgets mentioned above. This stuff can differ considerably amongst airways resulting from variations in the best way airways finance their plane and different property.
Adjusted EBITDA is reconciled to GAAP working revenue (loss) as follows:
Free Money Move
Air Canada makes use of free money circulate as an indicator of the monetary energy and efficiency of its enterprise, indicating the amount of money Air Canada can generate from operations and after capital expenditures. Free money circulate is calculated as web money flows from working actions minus additions to property, gear, and intangible property, and is web of proceeds from sale and leaseback transactions.
The desk under reconciles free money circulate to web money flows from (utilized in) working actions for the intervals indicated.
The tables under current comparative figures for the 12-month intervals ending December 31, 2024 and 2023, in reference to Air Canada’s full-year 2025 steering.
