Yesterday I talked about how Delta had misplaced its interisland accomplice in Hawaiʻi, however then I questioned simply how a lot of an issue that will be. That took me down a rabbit gap the place I checked out simply how a lot the interisland market has modified prior to now 30 years. That’s what we’ll have a look at at this time.
I dug into Cirium to search for solutions. T-100 was my pal on this one, as a result of it goes all the best way again to 1990. Right here is that chart I confirmed yesterday which seems on the variety of seats from the mainland to each Honolulu and the Neighbor Islands (included Hilo, Kahului, Kona, and Līhuʻe):
Seats from US Mainland to Hawaiʻi
T-100 Knowledge through Cirium
Discuss a transparent image right here. Flights from the mainland to the Neighbor Islands have been nearly non-existent within the early Nineties. In 1990 itself, flights operated solely from LA and San Francisco to Kahului and from San Francisco to Kona. Delta and United did the heavy lifting whereas ATA additionally was within the combine. Hawaiian got here in quickly after, and that plus ATA made for the start of progress available in the market. Nonetheless, service was primarily to Kahului, and Līhuʻe and its quick runway didn’t even get their first mainland flight till 1998.
From that time on, Honolulu seats declined and Neighbor Island seats soared. It actually modified gears earlier than the pandemic when Southwest entered the market. That momentum carried the Neighbor Islands to being on par with Honolulu till 2024, when Southwest started to tug again.
What brought about this big change? It was the introduction of the B757 into longer, overwater flights, that’s what. Check out this evolution of the plane used on Honolulu and Neighbor Island routes.
T-100 Knowledge through Cirium
To start with, sure, this goes again far sufficient that it nonetheless contains a few of Hawaiian’s DC-8 flights. I really like that, however in actuality Honolulu was the area of widebodies, largely mighty three-holers plying the skies. It actually didn’t change till about 2000 when the B767s took over. The B757s began in Honolulu en masse across the similar time, however they by no means made a huge effect. It was within the final 10 years when narrowbodies took maintain in Honolulu, a lot of that due to Southwest’s B737s and the introduction of the MAX and neo households.
The Neighbor Islands developed in a different way. That they had a handful of widebodies, however there weren’t many markets that might help them. So when ATA began taking part in round with the B757s within the Nineties, it opened up entire new markets and concepts. Positive there have been some B767s as nicely, however the B757 was the dominant pressure in Neighbor Island flying till the MAX and neo households got here into the market and recognition exploded.
In 2024, Honolulu flights have been break up roughly 50/50 between widebodies and narrowbodies, however almost 90 p.c of Neighbor Island flying was on narrowbodies.
So, with a fleet higher suited to those thinner routes, interisland flying grew to become much less necessary for airways. I can keep in mind loads of journeys as a child the place I flew to Honolulu after which related over to Kahului. Typically it was on Hawaiian, Aloha, and even Mid-Pacific Air again within the Nineteen Eighties. (Yeah, I flew a YS-11 as soon as, and I’m fairly enthusiastic about that to this present day.) However typically it was even on the airways that bought us to the islands within the first place. I keep in mind flying an American DC-10 as a by flight from Honolulu to Kahului. All of that visitors may disappear with the power to fly nonstop to the Neighbor Islands.
So what occurred? Properly, interisland flights declined. They actually fell off after 9/11 when the effort of safety slowed short-haul flying. And the numbers tanked once more in 2008 when Aloha failed. A handful of others tried to step in, however no person has had a big impression till Southwest.
Seats from Honolulu to Neighbor Islands
T-100 Knowledge through Cirium
Even at Southwest’s peak, there have been a 3rd fewer seats available in the market in comparison with 1990. And now, Southwest is pulling again once more. In 2025, seats are at present displaying as 8 p.c under 2023 with extra cuts completely doable.
Which airways are most impacted on the mainland flights? Apparently, it’s been surprisingly steady excluding Southwest when it made its large entrance.
Seats from the Mainland US to Hawaiʻi by Airline
T-100 Knowledge through Cirium
The large guys are, unsurprisingly, the mighty Alaska/Hawaiian mixture and United which has traditionally been the chief between the mainland and the islands. Southwest is subsequent adopted by American, after which there’s little Delta which has lower than half as many seats as United.
And for the reason that focus was on Delta yesterday, let’s go even deeper and break down Delta’s routes:
Delta Hawaiʻi Routes by Kind
T-100 Knowledge through Cirium
What I discover most fascinating about Delta is that it hasn’t actually modified a lot within the quantity of service it has flying east of the Rockies. That’s been comparatively flat aside from a quick bump 20 years in the past. What has actually modified right here is that the West Coast – Honolulu flying has declined dramatically whereas the Neighbor Island flying has elevated. It’s a smaller model of the bigger developments all through the business.
The interisland market has shrunk again all the way down to its core perform, primarily transporting individuals between the islands that have to go between them for work, faculty, and buying. As well as, there’s nonetheless a wholesome quantity of tourism that goes between islands, simply as I did on spring break with the children this 12 months the place we hung out each on Oʻahu and Kauaʻi. However Honolulu as a funnel for journey between the islands is basically solely really necessary for worldwide journey since Kona is the one different airport within the islands with a customs facility. For the mainland carriers, that’s probably not a difficulty.
