Earlier this week, Avelo introduced that it will be totally abandoning its West Coast community. With the airline packing up and heading east, the query was thick within the air… would anybody trouble to step in?
The reply is sure. There’s a Breeze a-blowin’.
Avelo’s West Coast experiment by no means fairly labored, but it surely wasn’t for lack of making an attempt various things. Burbank was the airline’s first base when it launched in 2021, and it’s been a rocky highway ever since with all types of adjustments. Right here’s a snapshot to present you an thought.
Avelo West Coast Complete Flights and Locations by Base
Information by way of Cirium
I do know I say that is by “base” however Palm Springs by no means was a base. It was only a spoke that had flights to different spokes. However anyway, you’ll be able to see a few of the insanity right here. When Avelo began, it went with larger frequency from Burbank to quite a lot of West Coast cities. It rapidly backtracked on frequency and went less-than-daily as a default. After which, the route adjustments started.
By the top of the primary summer time, Phoenix/Mesa, Bozeman, and Grand Junction have been out. Fort Collins was in, and so was Tucson for all of 9 flights earlier than it was canceled. Different routes like St George and Monterey have been so unhealthy they by no means even began. Fort Collins and Ogden have been gone earlier than the subsequent summer time, however Boise got here in. In summer time of 2023, the airline went into Brownsville, Colorado Springs, Kalispell, and again into Bozeman. Salem joined within the fall. Inside a 12 months, these have been all gone apart from Kalispell which limped alongside as a seasonal service. There was a short try at flying to Las Vegas that fizzled quick, after which the cuts set in. Different bases had a lot shorter lifespans.
Within the fall of 2023, Avelo determined to open a Las Vegas base. It had already dabbled in flying Burbank-based plane by means of Eureka, Fort Collins, Redding, and Santa Rosa on to Vegas, but it surely wished to place an airplane in Vegas to do extra. Santa Rosa by no means stopped, however fall of 2023 introduced Dubuque, Brownsville, Redmond/Bend, and Salem flights along with the return of Eureka. Most of these lasted only a few months, and Avelo pivoted once more.
By February 2024, it had determined to maneuver its Las Vegas base as much as Santa Rosa the place it had appear some delicate success with flights to Burbank, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, and Redmond/Bend. Beginning in summer time 2024, it added Boise, Kalispell, Ontario, Pasco (for 12 flights), Salem, and Salt Lake Metropolis from Santa Rosa. Issues went poorly sufficient that earlier this 12 months in 2025, Avelo determined to close its Santa Rosa base and transfer these airplanes to Phoenix the place it may function ICE charters flying migrants on behalf of the feds.
That left us with Burbank as the only real plane base within the west. This month, the community is a shell of its former self:
Information by way of Cirium
Burbank to Santa Rosa continues to be 6x weekly, however the remainder are both 2x or 4x weekly. The wind-down begins in August when Salem serves ends on August 10 with Santa Rosa and Las Vegas shutting on the eleventh. Kalispell goes away August 30, and that leaves 5 cities from Burbank to run till the bitter finish in December: Eugene, Eureka, Medford, Pasco, and Redmond/Bend. The ultimate flight is December 2.
Apparently, Breeze checked out this wind-down plan and mentioned, “huh, I suppose these ultimate 5 should be the most effective routes left. Possibly we should always attempt to fly 4 of them? Oh and added bonus, we get to kick Avelo whereas its down.” And they also will. It feels a bit of soiled to me, particularly after Breeze went into New Haven too, however hey, such is life.
This morning, Breeze introduced it’ll go into Burbank with flights to all however Medford. It’ll additionally add Provo which is its most well-liked outpost near house and the place the plane might be based mostly that fly these routes. Flights don’t start till subsequent March after the lengthy, skinny winter season.
Breeze will are available in with much less capability throughout. Avelo had Eureka and Redmond/Bend every at 4x weekly however Breeze will reduce that to 3x and 2x weekly respectively. Eugene was at 3x weekly and can drop to 2x with Breeze. Pasco stays flat at 2x weekly. Provo, however, will are available in sizzling with 5x weekly. Why? That’s how Breeze will circulation airplanes into Burbank to do the brand new flying. On the 2 days that doesn’t fly — Mondays and Fridays — the airplane will fly Provo to Las Vegas and on to Redmond/Bend.
So the query is… why, Breeze, why? I imply, apart from sticking a thumb in Avelo’s eye, is that this actually value doing? I spoke with Chief Business Officer Lukas Johnson to get a greater understanding of the rationale. He defined that this was an opportunistic transfer for the reason that markets will all of the sudden be unserved, and these markets that Breeze picks up look to be Avelo’s greatest. So why can Breeze make it work when Avelo can’t?
Not a Base
Avelo is an airline that has actually been working two airways. Apart from a short time when Brownsville had service from each Burbank and Orlando and I believe Dubuque had Las Vegas and Orlando, Avelo’s east and west haven’t been linked. That meant Avelo needed to base plane and crews and all that sort of infrastructure. Breeze might be flowing all of this from its already-existing Provo base. One flight a day will fly to Burbank (5x weekly) or Las Vegas (2x weekly) after which go on to the opposite 4 cities. Two days every week they arrive again to Burbank after which do one other flip earlier than going again to Provo. The opposite days, they head straight again. It’s a a lot lighter contact with much less asset dedication to make this work.
The Product
Avelo has an all-coach product with restricted upsell alternative. Sure, in September it’s rolling out additional legroom and a blocked center seat choice, however that may seem like too late. Breeze solely has 80 commonplace seats with 45 additional legroom and 12 First Class. It additionally has wifi onboard and restricted catering. Lukas thinks that the product might be well-received in Burbank and may assist enhance income over what Avelo may generate.
Gauge
In November 2022, Avelo had totally transitioned from its bigger B737-800s with 189 seats all the way down to the B737-700 with 147 seats in Burbank. Breeze will fly 10 fewer seats at 137 on its A220s. Solely 10 seats, does that matter? It does.
Lukas confirmed that it views these as the most effective markets for Avelo, so I made a decision to tug some numbers. If we take a look at the 12 months ending April 2025, these 4 markets from Burbank all crammed 80 to 83 p.c of seats. It’s larger than that throughout the summer time months. With 10 fewer seats, meaning it will possibly run a stable load throughout off-peak occasions however it will likely be capable of squeeze larger income when flights are full. Sure it’s solely 10 seats, however that may assist to juice fares.
If we take a look at fares in Q2 2024 to get an approximation of summer time, they ranged from $79 to $83. Within the off-peak Q1 of this 12 months, the newest information out there, Pasco was at $71, Eureka at $74, Redmond/Bend at $80, and Eugene at $94. These have been a few of the greatest within the West Coast system for Avelo. It’s notable that the one one of many remaining locations that Breeze received’t decide up, Medford, had a a lot decrease $59 fare in Q1.
It’s not a terrific search for Avelo to stroll away from markets that Breeze thinks can work, however you’ll be able to perceive why that may occur because of the structural variations between the 2 airways. Avelo will now attempt to save itself by specializing in its East Coast community, and Breeze, nicely, Breeze will simply hold increasing into markets no person else desires to fly.
