The Division of Transportation (DOT) DB1B knowledge is out for Q2, which means we are able to check out income tendencies on a route stage for the home market. That is at all times overwhelming for me since there are such a lot of various things to take a look at. Eventually test, I had 15 totally different tabs in my spreadsheet, and as at all times, I’ve discovered some enjoyable stuff. So as a substitute of specializing in one development, I believed I’d pull out 5 nuggets to share right here.
However first, a pair definitions:
Obtainable Seat Mile (ASM): The whole variety of miles every seat flew, all added collectively
Income Passenger Mile (RPM): The whole variety of miles flown by a seat when occupied, all added collectively
Load Issue: RPMs/ASMs to search out the full p.c of seat miles that have been crammed
Yield: Passenger income divided by RPMs (helps take into consideration fare tendencies)
PRASM: Passenger income divided by ASMs (like yield however impacted by load issue, so it’s a broader view)
SLA: Stage-length adjusted since shorter flights are inclined to imply larger yield and PRASM, so we modify on this case to 1,000 miles on common to match apples to apples
#1 – Las Vegas is Terrible, However Not as Terrible If You’re Southwest
YoY % Chg in Las Vegas
DB1B/T100 Information by way of Cirium, carriers proven by market measurement from left to proper
Simply have a look at this carnage in Vegas. Just one airline noticed optimistic tendencies in any respect, and that was Frontier. However to be truthful, Frontier noticed its seats drop, in order that at all times helps. (This was additionally one in all Frontier’s worst-performing markets, as you’ll see shortly.) Spirit, however, noticed its seats plunge, however it nonetheless noticed fares fall off an absolute cliff.
It wasn’t simply fares although. Load elements tanked throughout the board. Total, Vegas noticed hundreds drop from 85.7 p.c in Q2 2024 to 80.8 p.c this 12 months.
It’s laborious to search out a lot of a vivid spot right here outdoors of Frontier, however Southwest could be it. Town’s largest airline noticed fares drop slightly below 3 p.c which was higher than anybody else. And that got here on a 5.8 p.c improve in seats. I’d name that excellent news.
#2 – Frontier Did Higher In all places
Frontier YoY % Chg for Prime 15 Markets
DB1B/T100 Information by way of Cirium, carriers proven by market measurement from left to proper
Frontier has struggled together with everybody else within the ULCC house, however Q2 had quite a lot of optimistic tendencies for the airline. Keep in mind how I stated it regarded higher in Vegas than everybody else? That was one of many airline’s worst markets.
Denver had notably good unit income efficiency whereas fares soared elsewhere. Now, understand that this comes off a low base. However any progress is nice for the airline.
FLL SLA PRASM By Quarter
DB1B/T100 Information by way of Cirium
With Spirit on the ropes, the Fort Lauderdale market is one to observe. Spirit has already been in a tricky spot, however it noticed a small rebound in unit income tendencies. JetBlue, nonetheless? It was up. Everybody else that issues? They have been down. In fact, it helps that everybody else had seats climb whereas each Spirit and JetBlue have been down. However JetBlue was down solely 9 p.c on seats whereas Spirit was down 19 p.c.
Have in mind, this isn’t the entire story. That is simply home, and the worldwide market issues so much right here. Both method, with JetBlue’s already introduced development coming to FLL, it seems to be poised to pounce.
Southwest Unit Income for Hawaiʻi by Quarter
DB1B/T100 Information by way of Cirium
To say that Hawaiʻi has been a wrestle for Southwest might be an understatement, however have a look at Q2. Issues are trying up.
Interisland seats dropped by about 15 p.c from Q1 to Q2, and the fare even dipped ever-so-slightly. However hundreds soared from 48 p.c to 60 p.c (they have been at 47 p.c in Q2 2024), and that meant the unit income jumped by practically 25 p.c vs Q1 and greater than 35 p.c vs the earlier 12 months.
However don’t assume that is only a matter of reducing capability. For flights to the mainland, seats have been up greater than 6 p.c vs Q1, however unit income was additionally up practically 25 p.c vs Q1 and 16 p.c versus final 12 months.
Breeze Yield and Unit Income by Market Sort for Q2 2025
DB1B/T100 Information by way of Cirium, darkish blue exhibits Q2 2024 for comparability
You’ll keep in mind that Breeze’s numbers in Q2 on the income facet have been trying fairly good. However when you assume that’s good, check out this damaged down by present and new markets. I checked out markets that operated in Q2 2025 that additionally operated in Q2 2024 (Present) and people who didn’t function in Q2 2024 (New).
The distinction in yield is one factor, however it’s the unit income that actually stands out because the load elements on present markets in 2025 have been 10 factors larger than new ones. All-in, the SLA PRASM was 6.9 cents, however present markets have been 7 p.c larger than that at 7.4 cents. Remember the fact that present markets noticed greater than 20 p.c seat development vs final 12 months, so if Breeze would simply decelerate, its numbers would look considerably higher. And so they’re already not trying horrible in comparison with the place they have been.
